Japan's opposition parties struggle to dispute defense buildup
Ruling LDP's own ex-PM Fukuda becomes key critic, urges coexistence with China
TOKYO -- As Japan beefs up its defense capabilities, opposition parties are finding it difficult to challenge the buildup itself, limiting their grievances to procedural issues such as funding and accountability. Raising taxes is unacceptable, say many, while others note that it is not clear what the expanded defense budget will be used for.
But few have protested the need to significantly boost defense spending in a neighborhood that includes China, Russia and North Korea. The hesitation stems from poll numbers that show a majority of the public wants to bolster deterrence.
One of the lone voices openly protesting the expansion is former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, a retired member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, who says the path is a mistake. Fukuda calls for a deeper understanding of China's intentions and boosting efforts to defuse tensions with the big neighbor.
Based on the new National Security Strategy and two accompanying defense documents revealed last month, Japan will increase the Ministry of Defense budget by more than 1.6-fold in the next five years. When the Coast Guard budget and infrastructure projects previously associated with other ministries are included, overall defense spending will reach 2% of gross domestic product by 2027 -- in line with standards set for NATO. The current Ministry of Defense budget is 0.96% of GDP.
New acquisitions include counterstrike capabilities that would enable Tokyo to attack opponents' missile sites when a launch is deemed imminent.
On Monday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told the Diet that three-quarters of the required funding will be covered by spending cuts, utilization of surplus funds and non-tax income such as currency-exchange gains and proceeds from land sales.
For the remainder, Kishida said, "We people of the current generation must account for it, without procrastinating to future generations," alluding to tax hikes. It was a vow not to rely on debt to finance the spending.
Kenta Izumi, president of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, jumped on this portion after the speech. "Kishida didn't use the word 'tax hike' in the speech. He is hiding it," he said. "This is blatant wordplay."
The CDP has acknowledged the need for increased defense spending but has said that the government's broad-brush pledge to spend 43 trillion yen ($330 billion) over the next five years lacks rationality.
On Monday, the CDP and fellow opposition party Nippon Ishin held a joint meeting where they confirmed their opposition to raising taxes to fund increased defense spending. They agreed to meet once every two weeks to come up with counterproposals in regard to funding.
Yet Nippon Ishin has been adamant about the need to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, describing it as an international obligation.
Another opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People, supports increasing the defense budget, the acquisition of counterstrike capabilities and a potential reviving of the scrapped Aegis Ashore program to ensure deterrence against incoming ballistic missiles.
"The fact that the ruling coalition and opposing parties mostly agree on the need to increase defense spending is a big departure from the political debate we have seen in post-World War II Japan," said Sota Kato, research director at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research and a former Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry official.
"For decades, the Constitution and defense were the biggest ideological rifts between Japan's right and the left. In 1960, millions of protesters took to the street to oppose the new security treaty with the U.S.," he said.
But the reason the opposition has embraced the need for stronger defense is a reflection of opinion polls, Kato said. A Nikkei-TV Tokyo poll in December found 55% of respondents endorsing the government's plan to strengthen defense capabilities. Just 36% opposed it.
Instead, the opposition has turned its attention to the funding. The Nikkei poll found that 84% said Kishida's explanation of the need to raise taxes to fund the increases was inadequate. "By focusing on the funding issue, there really hasn't been a deep debate on defense," Kato said.
But former Prime Minister Fukuda remains unswayed. In an interview this month with the Japanese political magazine Sekai, Fukuda said: "Today, politicians casually say that Japan should strengthen defense with China in mind, but this is frankly wrong. What Japan needs to do is to find a way to be friendly with other countries so that there is never a fight or a war."
"Can Japan win in a war against China? Nobody would say that we can," Fukuda said. "Some say the U.S. will help us, but there must be limitations. Japan-U.S. relations are obviously important, but we must avoid a situation where we fight other countries because we have that alliance."
"Due to its history of being semi-colonized by foreign countries, China believes it could be encroached upon if it does not have a strong military," he said, noting that this view is not a reflection of China wanting to wage war against others.
Fukuda also opposed the idea of increasing Japan's defense budget at a time when security fears are heightened due to the Ukraine war. "Specific debate about national security should be conducted prudently when things are calmer," he said.